My 25 years as a China watcher: Here’s my prediction on the future US-China relations
Teaching English in China, circa 1999
Despite being the most consequential bi-laterial partnerships, the US-China relationship is at an all-time low. The media, politicians, and America’s defense all seem to have concluded that China is the “greatest threat to American society and security.”
Six years into Trump’s China trade war, tariffs are still in place under the Biden administration and two-way US-China trade has been on the decline ever since.
What started in the early 2000s as a synergistic cooperation between two superpowers has now morphed into a political and regional fallout of global competition where neither country trusts the other.
How did we get here and where are we heading?
Zhongshan City, sourthern China is quite clean and pleasant
My introduction to China
As a Saint John’s University (Minnesota) college student in the mid-to-late 90s, I was inspired to learn and to pursue a career with Asia and China. Back then, with China’s economy surging and its global influence on the upswing, it made sense for me to tie my future to China.
I started immersing myself in Chinese culture by deciding to teach English in China after college graduation, one year in the south and one year in the northeast.
With China rising, my students couldn’t help but sense a new 21st century dawn of opportunity and excitement.
After my teaching stint concluded, I pursued an MA in Chinese studies at the University of Hawaii in order to gain better understanding and expertise of the country and region.
Every few years I make an effort to come back to China to visit my former students
2008 Beijing Olympics: China’s coming out party
Around this time and leading up to the Beijing Olympics, there seemed to be a greater appreciation and excitement for China’s introduction on the world stage.
It seemed like everyone wanted a piece of China’s low-cost manufacturing. I recall the numerous state government trade missions---lead by the governor--- to China and the buzz surrounding the trade deals, contracts signed, and the number of jobs being created.
Importers and small businesses were all attempting to “cash in” on importing cheap China products for resale in showrooms, ecommerce and Amazon.
Guangdong cuisine at its finest!
2013 Xi’s Belt and Road initiative
By the early 2010s, cheap China manufacturing was being replaced by more high value industries, such as AI (artificial intelligence), advanced manufacturing, and microchips.
These years also saw the increase in labor and materials, forcing companies to look elsewhere, such as Vietnam and India, for their textiles, furniture, electronics and consumer goods.
By 2013, premier Xi Jinping announced China’s vision of creating massive regional land and maritime “silk roads' connecting China with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
China’s economic development is quite evident
Trump's trade war
Under Donald Trump’s presidency, America's relationship with China took a nosedive.
On and off the campaign trail, Trump was effective in portraying China as America’s enemy which had to do everything in its power to stop China’s rise.
Once in office, Trump canceled the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive 12-country trade deal where America would write the rules regarding Asia and global trade as well as fire the first shots in the US-China trade war.
From the end of Trump’s tenure to Biden’s presidency, the US-China relationship has been at the lowest in history.
Attending the Canton Trade Show with former students
2025 and beyond
With the upcoming US election, it will be interesting to see who will be America’s highest office holder and the repercussions for US-China relations.
I don’t foresee the relationship improving anytime soon; rather, I see both countries more dug in, defending their economic and geopolitical interests.
Having said that, considering America’s military overreach, overseas expansion and overseas operations---its decades of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq---it’s hard to fathom how any country can continue this reckless spending, while remaining strong at home.
Moreover, America is a country more divided than ever. Each political party is competing toward a race to the bottom, attempting to make the other side look as bad as possible to gain political points, even in instances where it's in the best interest of the country.
Despite China’s slowing economy, its decades of massive investments in AI technology, advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, and Global South outreach and cooperation have positioned itself much better to weather the turbulent times ahead.
